Thursday, March 23

Azebaijan's foreign debt- truth behind government quoted numbers

As is everything else in Azerbaijan, information on the country's foreign debt is diverse with government quoting one set of numbers, and opposition saying something completely else.

I thought I put together the most recent indicators as quoted by the story on AzadliqRadio.

*Ilham Aliyev says it is only 20% of the GDP 
*Min.of Economy says it is approximately 12 billion manats 
* Independent economist Natig Jafarli says authorities leave out company loans taken on state guarantees. Take for instance SOCAR, whose debt is 8 billion manats. If loans of all state companies are added then the total of external debt would be around 60% of the GDP. 

There are also other projects like the Southern Gas Corridor for which Azerbaijan took out a 1 billion loan with 5.8% return rate. 

Feel free to send in more info so I can expand on this post. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The topic of foreign debt, or even debt in general, is a tricky one indeed. CIA´s World Factbook quotes Azerbaijan´s with 20,4% for 2016. Adding company loans on state guarantees to the overall debt structure of a country, as Jafarli does, is spot on. Another factor that is often overlooked - and more often than not intentionally singled out from the respective countries´ debt publishing methodology - is "implicit debt". Implicit debt refers to the promise made by governments to cover future expenses for social security related payments (pensions, health care). The moment you count these in debt figures tend to explode.

Take care and all the best for your future endeavors.

Cheers, Emre